EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate change and climate variability present both challenges and opportunities for the successful construction and operation of the Berwick Bank Wind Farm (the Project). This report assesses the following factors:               

• Effects of the Project on climate through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and
• Vulnerability and resilience of the Project to climate change.

The effects of the Project in combination with anticipated future climate change on relevant environmental receptors, i.e. potential in-combination climate impacts (ICCI), are included in annex A to the Climate Assessment Report (volume 3, appendix 21, annex A).

EFFECTS OF THE PROJECT ON CLIMATE THROUGH GHG EMISSIONS

This report provides an assessment of the likely significant effects of the Project on climate through GHG emissions. This Effects on Climate assessment has been undertaken in accordance with the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) (2022) Environmental Impact Assessment Guide to: Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Evaluating their Significance.

The UK Government is legally bound to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the Scottish Government has a statutory target to achieve this by 2045. ‘Net zero’ means that the total GHG emissions produced would be equal to or less than the amount removed from the atmosphere, through a combination of GHG emission reduction and removal. The UK Government has introduced a series of carbon ‘budgets’ for five-year periods, which act as stepping-stones to achieve the overall reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. The five-year budgets are currently set up to 2037.

The baseline for GHG emissions is a ‘do nothing’ scenario whereby the Project is not implemented. The site for the Project is comprised of the offshore Proposed Development (as described in the Offshore EIA Report, Overarching Glossary, volume 1, chapter 1)[1] and the onshore Proposed Development (as described in the Onshore EIA Report; Overarching Glossary, volume 1, chapter 1)[2]. There are minor GHG emissions associated with the ‘do nothing’ scenario. As such, for the purposes of this assessment, a conservative GHG emissions baseline of zero is applied, which represents a robust conservative scenario.

The Project will produce approximately 505,589,525 MWh of low carbon electricity during its 35-year operation and maintenance phase. Over its lifecycle the Project will produce an emission intensity of 15 gCO2e/kWh. The electricity generated by the Project will save 9,178,312 tCO2e from being emitted into the atmosphere that would otherwise have been emitted from conventional, higher carbon emitting forms of energy generation (i.e. fossil fuels). When construction phase GHG emissions are included (6,226,793 tCO2e), the Project will save 2,951,519 tCO2e from being emitted into the atmosphere over its lifecycle.  The Project will not contribute more than 0.24% to any currently forecast UK carbon budget.

It will take the Project 8 years and 2 months to ‘pay back’ the GHG emissions relating to the construction phase from the start of operation. This ‘payback’ period is in line with both the UK and Scottish governments’ net zero ambitions as the carbon savings will start in 2036. Due to the carbon savings that the operation and maintenance phase will produce from low carbon electricity generation, the Project is assessed as having a significant beneficial effect on the climate.

It should be noted that the projected carbon savings are likely to be greater than predicted in this assessment as it uses a publicly available load factor from RenewableUK, that is based on performance of existing offshore wind turbines. However this load factor is expected to increase in the future due inclusion of actual site wind data measurements, improvements in wind turbine technology and associated operation and maintenance activities that are included in the load factor.

The implementation of the Cambois connection, which is related to the Project but will be consented separately, will be dependent on the completion of the Project. Therefore, the estimated GHG emissions resulting from the Cambois connection have been assessed cumulatively with the GHG emissions from the Project.

The Cambois connection is estimated to produce an additional 337,953 tCO2e during its construction phase. It is assumed that there are no operational GHG emissions associated with the transmission of electricity along the route.

As the construction phase for the Cambois connection takes place entirely during the 5th UK carbon budget (2028-2032), the total GHG emissions from the Project and the Cambois connection will be 4,523,604 tCO2e during this budget. Together, the projects will contribute 0.26% to the 5th UK carbon budget. These GHG emissions will not materially affect the UK or Scottish governments from achieving their net zero targets.

The Project’s significant beneficial effect on the climate during the operation and maintenance phase is also not changed when taking the Cambois connection into account, nor is the overall significant beneficial effect of the Project on the climate during its lifetime.

VULNERABILITY OF THE PROJECT TO CLIMATE CHANGE

This report also provides an assessment of the vulnerability of the Project to climate change, including:

• An examination of the current climate baseline using the UK Met Office’s latest regional dataset of 30-year averages and data from a nearby long running meteorological station (UKCP18 data);
• A consideration of the projected future climate baseline for the period 2061-2080;
• An assessment of how the Project may be vulnerable to the impacts of climate change during its construction and operation and maintenance phases;
• Identification of specific mitigation to adapt the design and operational processes to reduce the Project’s potential vulnerability to climate change; and
• An assessment of the residual climate change vulnerability of the Project that considers potential vulnerability impacts by quantifying their likelihood and consequence of each potential vulnerability.

The examination of climate projections has confirmed that the Climate Vulnerability study area’s climate is expected to change in the future. This assessment finds that the Project could be vulnerable to potential impacts linked to these changes in the climate. Impacts on three receptor groups are considered for this assessment, they are: Project assets (offshore and onshore), energy production, and staff wellbeing, including health and safety. The Applicant has designed the Project to withstand anticipated future climate change. Embedded mitigation measures that avoid potential impacts, minimise them or reduce their consequences to an acceptable level are therefore presented. After consideration of these mitigation measures, none of the potential Climate Vulnerability impacts are found to be significant adverse.

1. INTRODUCTION

This document presents the assessment of the likely significant effects of the Berwick Bank Wind Farm offshore and onshore infrastructure (hereafter referred to as “the Project”) on climate through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Effects on Climate). This document also presents the assessment of the Project’s vulnerability and resilience to climate change (Climate Vulnerability).

Human activities contribute to GHG emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels. GHGs trap heat in the atmosphere, with higher concentrations leading to increasing global temperatures. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations now exceed 400 parts per million for the first time in around 3 million years (The Royal Society, 2020), and increased GHG emissions have led to global average surface temperatures of 1°C higher than pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), 2021). There is a global consensus on the need to tackle climate change and for accelerating GHG emissions reductions (Climate Change Committee (CCC), 2021). The impact of climate change is already being felt around the world with changing rainfall patterns and rising sea levels, increasing the risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts and fires, and has already caused damage to ecosystems, people, settlements and infrastructure (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022).

Climate change requirements are outlined in the Electricity Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2017; the Marine Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2017; the Marine Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2007; and the Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2017, which state that the assessment should consider the likely significant effects of the Project arising from:

• The impact of the Project on climate (GHG emissions); and
• The vulnerability of the Project to climate change and the impacts relevant to adaptation.

The effects of the Project in combination with anticipated future changes to the climate on environmental receptors (an in-combination climate change impacts assessment) has also been undertaken in accordance with IEMA Guidance (IEMA, 2020).

The potential impact of the Project on climate, as a result of GHG emissions during construction and operation and maintenance, is termed Effects on Climate.

The vulnerability of the Project to climate change, in particular the impacts of extreme weather caused by climate change during construction and operation and maintenance, and adaptation to mitigate the effects of these impacts, is termed Climate Vulnerability.

The potential effects of the Project in combination with anticipated future climate change on relevant environmental receptors is termed in-combination climate impacts (ICCI). The potential ICCI of the Project and anticipated further climate change are presented in annex A to this report (volume 3, appendix 21, annex A). 

1.1.                  PURPOSE OF THE ASSESSMENT

The Effects on Climate and Climate Vulnerability assessments have been undertaken in accordance with the following IEMA guidance:

• Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Evaluating their Significance, February 2022 (IEMA,2022); and
• Environmental Impact Assessment Guide to Climate Change Resilience & Adaptation, June 2020 (IEMA,2020).

This assessment:

• Sets the scope and boundaries of the Effects on Climate and Climate Vulnerability assessments;
• Presents the existing environmental baseline and the future baseline for both the Effects on Climate and Climate Vulnerability assessments;
• Identifies assumptions and limitations in compiling the environmental/climate information;
• Presents the likely significant effects on the climate arising from the Project through GHG emissions, and the effects of climate change on the Project; and
• Highlights any mitigation measures which are recommended to prevent, minimise or reduce the likely significant effects of the Project on the climate, and any measures which are recommended to be taken by the Project in addition to any measures already designed into the Project to prevent, minimise or reduce to acceptable levels any likely significant effects on the Project from climate change.

1.2.                  CONSULTATION

A meeting was held with East Lothian Council to present the method and the interim findings of the Effects on Climate and Climate Vulnerability assessments (March 2022). The Council did not have any comments to be addressed. 

Responses to the offshore Scoping Report (SSER, 2021) relevant to carbon are provided in Table 1-1. 

Table 1-1 – Scoping Comments (Offshore Scoping Opinion, MS-LOT, February 2022)

In relation to flood risk and drainage design a detailed Flood Risk Assessment (FRA) has been prepared as part of the Onshore EIA Report. It has been completed in accordance with guidance presented within Scottish Planning Policy (SPP), the National Planning Framework for Scotland 3 (NPF3) and taking cognisance of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009. The assessment also takes due consideration of the revised draft National Planning Framework for Scotland 4 (NPF4) which was laid before the Scottish Parliament in November 2022 and is currently under consultation. The FRA uses the latest climate change allowances published by SEPA (2022). Consultation has been undertaken with SEPA on the FRA to agree its scope and specific approaches regarding:

• Assessment of the baseline flood risk; and
• Assessment of the with-scheme conditions to evaluate the impacts and determine any additional mitigation.

2. POLICY & LEGISLATIVE CONTEXT

Policy and legislation specifically in relation to climate are provided in Table 2-1. UK carbon reduction targets and carbon budgets are provided in Table 2-2 and Scotland carbon reduction targets are provided in Table 2-3.

Table 2-1 – Summary of Legislation and Policy Relevant to Climate

Table 2-2 – UK Carbon Reduction Targets as Set in Carbon Budget Orders 2009, 2011, 2016 and 2021

Table source: Advice on reducing the UK’s emissions - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk)

Table 2-3 – Scotland Carbon Reduction Targets as Set by Climate Change (Emissions Reductions Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019

Table source: Climate change: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions - gov.scot (www.gov.scot) Note: There are yearly carbon reduction targets up until 2045. They are not shown here to reduce table length.